Monday’s loss to Columbus was a microcosm of what we’ve seen from the Maple Leafs so far this season.
Some beautiful individual efforts that turned into nice goals for.
Some terrible decision-making and blown coverages that became goals against.
This is a thought bubble that I’ve presented here a couple of times, but one of the disadvantages Toronto has right now, that you see in a game like this, is some of their best players are still so young and still not fully developed two-way players.
For what they’re making, the Leafs need them to get there, in a hurry. Because other teams they’re up against are paying their Bergerons and Crosbys less – and they’re able to offer more, especially without the puck.
Which can be a great equalizer.
“The issues for us: shift length – discipline and shift length – and, then, sort it out defensively,” a frustrated Mike Babcock said after the game. “You know, we do lots of good things. The ability to maintain it and do it for 60 hasn’t been something that we’ve done, game in and game out, and that’s what good teams do. You’ve got to mature and grow up as a group for that to happen. You just have to. The level of focus that you bring to your job each day, no matter what job you do, has to be at a high.”
Ten games into 2019-20, the Leafs are 5-3-2. That’s a 98-point pace, or right around wild-card team territory in the East. (The Canadiens missed the playoffs with 96 points last season.)
It’s also, in my opinion, an underachievement for this group, if it ends up there, with fewer points than last season.
That said, there’s good baked in there in those results. And it’s worthwhile, at this point, to take a more granular look
So here we go.
The basics
The Leafs currently have a goal differential almost identical to what they finished with last season. The difference is they have been scoring more and allowing more, on a per-game basis.
Some of that is obviously percentage-driven, as we wouldn’t expect the Leafs to score on 11.5 percent of their shots or their goalies to be this porous over a full season.
And there are definitely positive indicators on the power play and in shot quantity and quality metrics. In all three of those areas, there’s tangible improvement over last season, enough to say they’ve probably “deserved” another point or two in the standings.
Even strength
So let’s look at that a little closer, comparing a few key shot metrics statistics from last season to this one.
Based solely on shot attempts (or Corsi), the Leafs are generating a similar number of pucks at net at even strength and have brought the attempts against down a noteworthy amount (four per 60 minutes).
Last season, five-on-five, the Leafs finished 27th in shot attempts against per minute.
This season, they’re currently 18th.
That’s not going to have Babcock partying in the streets. But it’s a shift that comes thanks at least in part due to new personnel and new tactics, specifically on the blue line. Here is the attempts-against statistic broken out into when individual defencemen have been on the ice.
This is one very simple stat: pucks directed at your net. But it highlights the shift in Muzzin’s results, in particular.
Replacing Hainsey with Ceci on the tough-match pair alongside Rielly might not be a huge upgrade, but it’s difficult to argue that Muzzin-Barrie hasn’t been a sizable improvement over Muzzin-Zaitsev.
This also highlights the impact Dermott could have once he returns, especially if he’s put into a third-pair role with Holl, who has played well despite getting most of his minutes with Marincin.
It’s harder to read much into the expected goals and scoring chance numbers, given the NHL has had some location-tracking issues early on this season. But it’s worth pointing out that the Leafs’ numbers in both expected goals and scoring chances are down far more than the league-average drop.
It certainly appears from this data that the Leafs are playing a less high-event style compared to last season, which could link back to the fact they’re not using that long-bomb stretch pass as often as a breakout manoeuvre.
Even without Dermott, the new-look top six here feels like it’s offered a legitimate upgrade over a year ago.
Power play
The Leafs are still not drawing a lot of power-play opportunities, with only 28 after 10 games. (At least they’re not the Islanders, who have had only 12 after eight games.)
When the Leafs are on the man advantage, they’re scoring more effectively than last season despite weaker-shot locations. Last season, Toronto’s expected goals and chance counts were first in the NHL by a wide margin; this season, they’re down to only slightly above the NHL average.
The biggest reason for the weak underlying numbers here, however, is Toronto’s PP2 is posting absolutely brutal results so far. They’ve been getting nearly two minutes per game on the man advantage and done almost nothing with it, while PP1 continues to fire at an elite level.
At some point, the Leafs are going to have to lean in harder on their top unit, giving them the bulk of the minutes. Especially if they can’t start to generate more power plays.
Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner only getting 2.5 minutes a game on the power play is crazy considering star forwards elsewhere such as Elias Pettersson and Nathan MacKinnon are getting four-plus per night.
Penalty kill
It’s not hard to spot the problem here. And it hurt them in a big way against the Blue Jackets.
One of the league’s least-penalized clubs last season, the Leafs have been on the PK more than all but four other teams this season. And Toronto’s PP-minus-PK-minute differential is third-last in the NHL.
They’ve been fortunate to get a couple of shorthanded goals, which offsets some of this, but the Leafs are on pace to allow 57 goals on the penalty kill this season on 279 opportunities.
Last season, they allowed 41 on 204 opportunities.
It’s frankly weird to see a team that is so fast and skilled resort to the number of stick infractions that they have early on. A lot of them have come from newcomers such as Kerfoot, Barrie and Shore, too.
And their coach is baffled by it.
“The penalties are hooking and slashing,” Babcock said, glancing at the scoresheet postgame. “Let me look right here – slashing, tripping, hooking, tripping, tripping.”
The Leafs’ PK has probably been more effective than a season ago, when Hainsey and Zaitsev would eat huge minutes every time. With better skating D out there, the chance counts are down. They look fine, as a unit.
They’re just on the ice too much.
Goaltending
This, frankly, might be the biggest factor of all in the Leafs record being what it is.
Andersen struggled early this season to find his form, although his play the past few starts has been far better. And Hutchinson hasn’t been able to duplicate his modest results from last season so far.
It’s early, but Tuesday’s start in Boston is going to be huge for Hutchinson to show he deserves a longer look in the backup role. Getting those starts on the second nights of back-to-backs is never going to be easy, so he’s going to have to steal them some games.
(No one asked, but Garret Sparks has a .931 save percentage in four AHL games so far.)
Conclusions
I’ve done these types of breakdowns in my head for awhile, and I find it’s an instructive way to get an early glimpse at shifts a team can be making. But you’ve got to be careful not to read too much into small data points after only 10 games.That said, on the whole, I think there’s more room for optimism than pessimism in these numbers. If the Leafs can get goaltending closer to their netminders’ career norms and stop taking so many penalties, there’s a clear path for improvement over last year’s 100-point season.
Especially once they’re healthy and have Tavares, Hyman and Dermott pushing some of the weaker depth options out of the lineup.
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