Leafs falling

What is wrong with the Toronto Maple Leafs?

Is it as simple as injuries? Let’s not forget that two-thirds of last year’s top line, and a defenceman who would be in their top-four right now are out.

In a league built on parity, maybe not many teams could weather the losses of John Tavares, Zach Hyman and Travis Dermott.

(Dermott and Hyman are eligible to come off long-term injured reserve Friday vs. San Jose. I’m going to guess Dermott will, Hyman won’t.)

 I don’t think it’s injuries. They look like they don’t care. There is very little passion in their game. It’s like there’s something else going on in their heads.

Did all that social media hate over the summer get to Mitch Marner? Did Auston Matthews lose his mojo when the disorderly conduct charge he faces in Arizona come to light? Remember when William Nylander said he would dominate the NHL this year? From the far boards, I guess.

 Is Morgan Rielly wondering where Ron Hainsey is? Is Frederik Andersen wondering if he should play all the games? Is Michael Hutchinson wondering if Andersen should play all the games? Why does Andreas Johnsson think it’s a good idea to hook and hold in the offensive zone?

If ever a team was trying to get its coach fired ... I’ll let that thought sink in.

As for coach Mike Babcock, you’ve got to wonder what he’s thinking. He’s had three years to coach a system into his core players, and now they seem to be ignoring it.

He took a tough love approach with Marner (remember his fourth-line duty) and was pilloried for it, but of all the young guns, it worked for Marner.

He took a “praise all the time” approach with Matthews who was never great defensively but did display a dogged pursuit of the puck. The dogged pursuit is gone.

The Leafs have lost more than they’ve won out of the gate (5-4-2). A team that used to score its way out of trouble seems to want to skate itself into trouble on a regular basis

Pure and simple, they suck right now,  hope it doesn't last long.

Leafs Report card ( after 10 games )

Monday’s loss to Columbus was a microcosm of what we’ve seen from the Maple Leafs so far this season.
Some beautiful individual efforts that turned into nice goals for.
Some terrible decision-making and blown coverages that became goals against.

This is a thought bubble that I’ve presented here a couple of times, but one of the disadvantages Toronto has right now, that you see in a game like this, is some of their best players are still so young and still not fully developed two-way players.
For what they’re making, the Leafs need them to get there, in a hurry. Because other teams they’re up against are paying their Bergerons and Crosbys less – and they’re able to offer more, especially without the puck.

Which can be a great equalizer.
“The issues for us: shift length – discipline and shift length – and, then, sort it out defensively,” a frustrated Mike Babcock said after the game. “You know, we do lots of good things. The ability to maintain it and do it for 60 hasn’t been something that we’ve done, game in and game out, and that’s what good teams do. You’ve got to mature and grow up as a group for that to happen. You just have to. The level of focus that you bring to your job each day, no matter what job you do, has to be at a high.”

Ten games into 2019-20, the Leafs are 5-3-2. That’s a 98-point pace, or right around wild-card team territory in the East. (The Canadiens missed the playoffs with 96 points last season.)
It’s also, in my opinion, an underachievement for this group, if it ends up there, with fewer points than last season.
That said, there’s good baked in there in those results. And it’s worthwhile, at this point, to take a more granular look

So here we go.

The basics

The Leafs currently have a goal differential almost identical to what they finished with last season. The difference is they have been scoring more and allowing more, on a per-game basis.





Some of that is obviously percentage-driven, as we wouldn’t expect the Leafs to score on 11.5 percent of their shots or their goalies to be this porous over a full season.
And there are definitely positive indicators on the power play and in shot quantity and quality metrics. In all three of those areas, there’s tangible improvement over last season, enough to say they’ve probably “deserved” another point or two in the standings.

Even strength

So let’s look at that a little closer, comparing a few key shot metrics statistics from last season to this one.



Based solely on shot attempts (or Corsi), the Leafs are generating a similar number of pucks at net at even strength and have brought the attempts against down a noteworthy amount (four per 60 minutes).
Last season, five-on-five, the Leafs finished 27th in shot attempts against per minute.
This season, they’re currently 18th.
That’s not going to have Babcock partying in the streets. But it’s a shift that comes thanks at least in part due to new personnel and new tactics, specifically on the blue line. Here is the attempts-against statistic broken out into when individual defencemen have been on the ice.




This is one very simple stat: pucks directed at your net. But it highlights the shift in Muzzin’s results, in particular.
Replacing Hainsey with Ceci on the tough-match pair alongside Rielly might not be a huge upgrade, but it’s difficult to argue that Muzzin-Barrie hasn’t been a sizable improvement over Muzzin-Zaitsev.
This also highlights the impact Dermott could have once he returns, especially if he’s put into a third-pair role with Holl, who has played well despite getting most of his minutes with Marincin.

It’s harder to read much into the expected goals and scoring chance numbers, given the NHL has had some location-tracking issues early on this season. But it’s worth pointing out that the Leafs’ numbers in both expected goals and scoring chances are down far more than the league-average drop.
It certainly appears from this data that the Leafs are playing a less high-event style compared to last season, which could link back to the fact they’re not using that long-bomb stretch pass as often as a breakout manoeuvre.
Even without Dermott, the new-look top six here feels like it’s offered a legitimate upgrade over a year ago.

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Power play

The Leafs are still not drawing a lot of power-play opportunities, with only 28 after 10 games. (At least they’re not the Islanders, who have had only 12 after eight games.)
When the Leafs are on the man advantage, they’re scoring more effectively than last season despite weaker-shot locations. Last season, Toronto’s expected goals and chance counts were first in the NHL by a wide margin; this season, they’re down to only slightly above the NHL average.
The biggest reason for the weak underlying numbers here, however, is Toronto’s PP2 is posting absolutely brutal results so far. They’ve been getting nearly two minutes per game on the man advantage and done almost nothing with it, while PP1 continues to fire at an elite level.
At some point, the Leafs are going to have to lean in harder on their top unit, giving them the bulk of the minutes. Especially if they can’t start to generate more power plays.
Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner only getting 2.5 minutes a game on the power play is crazy considering star forwards elsewhere such as Elias Pettersson and Nathan MacKinnon are getting four-plus per night.

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Penalty kill

It’s not hard to spot the problem here. And it hurt them in a big way against the Blue Jackets.
One of the league’s least-penalized clubs last season, the Leafs have been on the PK more than all but four other teams this season. And Toronto’s PP-minus-PK-minute differential is third-last in the NHL.
They’ve been fortunate to get a couple of shorthanded goals, which offsets some of this, but the Leafs are on pace to allow 57 goals on the penalty kill this season on 279 opportunities.
Last season, they allowed 41 on 204 opportunities.
It’s frankly weird to see a team that is so fast and skilled resort to the number of stick infractions that they have early on. A lot of them have come from newcomers such as Kerfoot, Barrie and Shore, too.
And their coach is baffled by it.
“The penalties are hooking and slashing,” Babcock said, glancing at the scoresheet postgame. “Let me look right here – slashing, tripping, hooking, tripping, tripping.”
The Leafs’ PK has probably been more effective than a season ago, when Hainsey and Zaitsev would eat huge minutes every time. With better skating D out there, the chance counts are down. They look fine, as a unit.
They’re just on the ice too much.

Goaltending

This, frankly, might be the biggest factor of all in the Leafs record being what it is.
Andersen struggled early this season to find his form, although his play the past few starts has been far better. And Hutchinson hasn’t been able to duplicate his modest results from last season so far.
It’s early, but Tuesday’s start in Boston is going to be huge for Hutchinson to show he deserves a longer look in the backup role. Getting those starts on the second nights of back-to-backs is never going to be easy, so he’s going to have to steal them some games.
(No one asked, but Garret Sparks has a .931 save percentage in four AHL games so far.)

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Conclusions

I’ve done these types of breakdowns in my head for awhile, and I find it’s an instructive way to get an early glimpse at shifts a team can be making. But you’ve got to be careful not to read too much into small data points after only 10 games.

That said, on the whole, I think there’s more room for optimism than pessimism in these numbers. If the Leafs can get goaltending closer to their netminders’ career norms and stop taking so many penalties, there’s a clear path for improvement over last year’s 100-point season.


Especially once they’re healthy and have Tavares, Hyman and Dermott pushing some of the weaker depth options out of the lineup.

Make a comment or two.

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Blue Jackets come to town

The Columbus Blue Jackets hope to play themselves out of a rut when they visit the Toronto Maple Leafs on Monday.

The Blue Jackets are coming off consecutive 3-2 overtime losses -- Friday against the Chicago Blackhawks on the road and Saturday against the New York Islanders at home.

"(We) really should've won both these games," Blue Jackets defenseman Seth Jones said. "They just made the plays in overtime to win. That's all that mattered, that's all it comes down to."

The Maple Leafs are coming off a 4-3 overtime victory Saturday over the visiting Boston Bruins in their first game without team captain John Tavares, who will be out at least two weeks with a broken finger.

Maple Leafs defenseman Morgan Rielly, whose two goals Saturday included the game-winner, said pulling out the win under the circumstances was big.

"A team within the division, not having (Tavares), just kind of a point in our year where we want to get going, and I think we answered the bell," Rielly said. "Not as clean as we wanted to win, but we got it done anyways, so we'll take it."

Columbus isn't always getting it done, but it is consistently competitive. The Blue Jackets have played in six straight one-goal games, winning three and losing three.

On Saturday, Columbus gave up the overtime goal when Cam Atkinson left the defensive zone anticipating a breakout pass.

"We can't have a guy leaving the zone before we have control of the puck tonight, and it ends up in the back of the net," Blue Jackets coach John Tortorella said after the game. "It's frustrating for me when we play the absolute right way all night long here being above the puck and then we end up with a blown coverage and some cheating and it ends up in the back of our net.

"It's a huge point that goes by the boards again."

The Maple Leafs, who defeated the Blue Jackets 4-1 in Columbus on Oct. 4, have won three of their past four games after losing three in a row.

"We want to start stringing some wins together," said Toronto goaltender Frederik Andersen, who made 43 saves on Saturday. "We know we haven't been as consistent as we'd like, but this was a good test for us, and hopefully we can build on this."

With Tavares out, Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock moved right winger Mitchell Marner onto a line with center Auston Matthews, which creates a potent combination. Babcock said the two likely will be on the same line on Monday.

"We haven't played with each other much, but I think every time we get paired up together, we get pretty excited out there," Matthews said.

Toronto had one reported injury Saturday, with Andreas Johnsson missing the third period after blocking a shot with his leg in the second. X-rays were negative, but he did not practice Sunday.

"I think he's going to be fine," Babcock said.

As for the win over Boston, Babcock said: "I don't know if it's a statement game, but what I'd say to you is that it was more important for our team than their team. It was important because (Tavares) was out, to find a way to win it, and it was probably even more important when we lost (Johnsson) that we got it done."

Grasping at straws

Jeff Petry was chatting with teammates about penalty shots Saturday morning.
Hours later, he found himself in just that scenario — and under strange circumstances.
The veteran defenceman tied the game on a penalty shot after Toronto winger Kasperi Kapanen threw his broken stick at Petry, then Paul Byron buried the only goal of the shootout as the Montreal Canadiens fought back from 4-1 down to beat the Maple Leafs 6-5 for their first win of the season.

Carey Price made 32 saves, including a couple huge ones in overtime and the shootout, to secure the victory.

Montreal trailed 4-1 just over five minutes into the third period, but scored twice in quick succession to set up Petry's penalty shot. With the Canadiens on a power play, Petry saw his slapshot blocked by Kapanen, who broke his stick on the play and inexplicably threw it at the blue-liner.

"I've seen guys throw a stick at the puck, but never at somebody," Petry said. "No one knew the ruling on it. I saw the ref's arm go up. They originally said anybody can take it, and then they changed it and said anybody on the ice.

"And then they said it had to be me, so it was a weird way it played out."
Petry, who had never taken a penalty shot in the NHL and failed to score on his only shootout attempt, beat Leafs goalie Michael Hutchinson low to the glove side for his first of the season to make it 4-4.

Montreal winger Brendan Gallagher said he'd seen his teammate take a couple of penalty shots in practice and was confident he'd deliver.
"That was pretty silly," he said of the stick throw. "Petey made him pay."
Kapanen said fatigue played a factor in his brain cramp.
"I guess you get a penalty shot for that," he said. "I take full responsibility."
"I've never seen that play by anybody ever," Toronto head coach Mike Babcock said. "We've all got to learn from it."

Gallagher had a goal and two assists for Montreal (1-0-1), while Phillip Danault and Max Domi, with a goal and an assist each, and Jonathan Drouin also scored. Shea Weber added two assists.
Auston Matthews had two goals — his fourth and fifth of the season — while Alexander Kerfoot had a goal and two assists for his first three points with Toronto (2-0-1). Trevor Moore added a goal and an assist. William Nylander also scored for the Leafs, who got 37 saves from Hutchinson. Tyson Barrie had two assists.

After that wild third period that saw Toronto blow that 4-1 lead before tying the game 5-5 late, Price robbed Marner on a breakaway in overtime before the Canadiens came close at the other end on a scramble that resulted in a slashing penalty to John Tavares.
The Leafs managed to kill that one off and Tavares had a chance on another partial break coming out of the box, but Price snagged his effort.
Domi then hit the crossbar on a 2-on-1 rush and Price denied Tavares again late to cap a frantic extra session.
"He's unbelievable," Domi said. "He's the best goalie in the world for a reason."
Byron beat Hutchinson on the Canadiens' first shootout attempt, while Price denied Matthews and Marner before Tavares shot wide to end it.

"Things were looking a little bleak going into the second intermission, but we were able to stay positive, rally the troops and have a big third," Price said. "I think that was fun to watch."
Toronto appeared to have the game in hand when Nylander made it 4-1 at 5:16 of the third on a power play, but Montreal scored 11 seconds later when Drouin's pass in front went in off Leafs defenceman Morgan Rielly.
Gallagher then made it 4-3 at 6:29 after an icing, banging home a Weber rebound.
And after Petry's successful penalty shot, Danault put Montreal ahead by burying another rebound with 4:40 left as the Canadiens scored four times in less than 10 minutes.
But Matthews tied the game with 75 seconds remaining and Hutchinson on the bench to send Scotiabank Arena into a frenzy. The 22-year-old now has 12 goals in 12 career games against Montreal.

The Leafs came in off Friday's 4-1 road victory in Columbus over the Blue Jackets following their 5-3 defeat of the Ottawa Senators in Wednesday's curtain-raiser on the 2019-20 NHL campaign. The Canadiens dropped their season opener 4-3 to the Carolina Hurricanes in a shootout on Thursday.
Montreal got on the board just 68 seconds into the first when Domi took a feed from Artturi Lehkonen on a 2-on-1 and beat Hutchinson.
Toronto tied things up at 5:57 on sequence that started when Nylander created a turnover at the Canadiens' blue line. The puck eventually found its way to Matthews, who ripped his fourth on bullet a one-timer.

The home side grabbed the lead at 15:54 when Moore stripped Canadiens rookie winger Nick Suzuki behind Price's goal and fed Kerfoot, who snapped his first in blue and white after coming over with Barrie from the Colorado Avalanche in the Nazem Kadri trade this summer.
Moore scored his second at 1:29 of the middle period and Nylander got on the board himself on the power play early in the third before Montreal woke up to spur on the chaotic finish.
"After the first two periods we were an extremely frustrated team," Canadiens head coach Claude Julien said. "It was a matter of refocusing and trying to get our game back on track."

Let's get this season started

What me worry ?

 Well, it's another season opening night, so let's ask the Beaver what he thinks.

Munch ,munch, munch...well I guess this is a bad time , he's eating right now.  We will inquire later. Anyhow, the pomp and circumstance of the pre season is over and rosters have been settled, and we’re finally watching games that count. 

Obviously, you don’t want to read into openers, but it was encouraging to see a strong performance out of Edmonton.  Mike Smith had a good Oilers debut and Zack Kassian had a strong game.  We saw definitively last season that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl simply can’t carry the Oilers on their own.  They can lead the charge, as they did tonight, but they still need support.  Tonight they got it.

The Maple Leafs also had an encouraging opener.  Only four of their forwards finished the game without a point, highlighting the depth up front that they enjoy.  In particular, Ilya Mikheyev got off to an encouraging start in his NHL debut.

Auston pots a pair

TORONTO 5 OTTAWA 3

Well, it was certainly eventful in Toronto, with John Tavavres emotional entrance as Leaf's captain.
And for the fourth straight time, Auston Matthews scored in the season opener.  He’s just the fourth player in NHL history to find the back of the net in his first four openers.  On Wednesday, he scored twice with his second goal being the game winner.
Ilya Mikheyev and registered an assist.  The 24-year-old was made his NHL debut after scoring 23 goals and 45 points in 62 KHL contests in 2018-19.
Brady Tkachuk scored the first goal of the NHL season.  The Senators sophomore found the back of the net just 25 seconds into the game.
Craig Anderson turned aside 37 of 42 Maple Leafs shots.  He had a 3.51 GAA and .903 save percentage in 50 games last season.
At the other end of the ice, Frederik Andersen saved 23 of 26 shots.  He allowed a single goal in each period.

All hail Captain John

WASHINGTON 3 ST. LOUIS 2 (OT)

Washington spolied the party, and

after raising the Stanley Cup banner, got off to a fast start with Sammy Blais and Alex Pietrangelo bringing the Blues up 2-0 by 7:55 of the first period.  Ryan O'Reilly assisted on both of the goals.
Alex Ovechkin scored a goal for the Capitals.  It was his 659th career goal, which puts him just nine away from the 12th place Luc Robitaille.
Jakub Vrana netted the overtime winner.  He had 24 goals and 47 points in 82 games last season.
Braden Holtby stopped 20 of 22 shots for Washington.  He didn’t face more than eight shots in any period.
Meanwhile, Jordan Binnington saved 31 of 34 shots.  He’s coming off a stunning rookie campaign where he posted a 24-5-1 record, 1.89 GAA, and .927 save percentage in 32 contests.

EDMONTON 3 VANCOUVER 2
Mike Smith won his first game in an Oilers’ uniform.  He stopped 31 of 33 Canucks shots.
Leon Draisaitl scored a goal and registered two assists.  He’s coming off career-highs of 50 goals and 105 points in 2018-19.
Zack Kassian chipped in a goal and an assist for Edmonton.  He finished last season with 15 goals and 26 points in 79 contests.

Tanner Pearson found the back of the net in the third period.  Defenseman Alexander Edler scored Vancouver’s other goal.
Jacob Markstrom kicked out 19 of 22 shots Wednesday night.  Vancouver had a 2-1 lead, but Markstrom was beaten twice in the final 9:08 minutes.

VEGAS 4 SAN JOSE 1
Marcus Sorensen scored the Sharks’ lone goal.  It was assisted by Logan Couture and Brent Burns.

Martin Jones kicked out 31 of 35 Golden Knight shots.  He surrendered two goals on 12 shots in the first period.
At the other end of the ice, Marc-Andre Fleury saved 21 of 22 shots.  It was Fleury’s 440th career win.  He’s five victories away from Terry Sawchuk and seventh place on the all-time list.

Reilly Smith scored twice for Vegas.  The second marker was scored shorthanded at 4:01 of the third period.
Vegas’ Cody Glass made his debut on Wednesday.  He logged 14:51 minutes of ice time and scored a goal.